About

NECEP is an applied research group that works within the Applied Research & Consulting of Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics (CATÓLICA-LISBON), which tracks the short-term behavior of the Portuguese economy. It was founded in 2005. It is an independent entity that, among other activities, discloses quarterly forecasts on the Portuguese economy with a two-year horizon.

NECEP's activities are financed by its subscribers, who have access to all the work it produces. For the general public, NECEP releases a quarterly executive summary with a description of the status of the Portuguese economy.

Quarterly Newsletter

NECEP puts out a Quarterly Newsletter about the short-term behavior of the Portuguese economy, entitled Folha Trimestral de Conjuntura (FTC). The FTC is based on public data and presents forecasts for the main macroeconomic aggregates, including GDP. It also includes forecasts for the short and mid-term, up to two years, of these variables. It also analyses public finance, global markets and the world economic climate. The executive summary is made available on this page and in the press. 

Quick Reading Sheets

NECEP issues a set of Quick Reading Sheets with an assessment of some relevant high frequency statistics for the Portuguese economy, such as the Economic Sentiment Indicator, car sales, registered unemployment and national accounts. NECEP uses its own methodology. The new data is compared with benchmarks that have previously been disclosed.

Thematic Reports

Once a year, NECEP produces a thematic report about the following year’s Government Budget.

Projects and specific studies

NECEP carries out projects, specific studies and presentations for subscribers upon request.
NECEP Quarterly Newsletter Summary
keyboard_arrow_down

Published on 6 April 2022

Published on 19 January 2022

Published on 13 October 2021

Published on 7 July 2021

Published on 14 April 2021

Published on 20 January 2021

Published on 7 October 2020 

Published on 8 July 2020 

Published in Portuguese on 23 March 2020

Published on 22 January 2020 

Published on 9 October 2019

Published on 10 July 2019

Published on 10 April 2019

Published on 23 January 2019

Published on 10 October 2018

Published on 11 July 2018

Published on 11 April 2018

Published on 17 January 2018

Published on 11 October 2017

Published on 12 July 2017

Published on 12 April 2017

Published on 18 January 2017

Published on 12 October 2016

Published on 13 July 2016

Published on 13 April 2016

Published on 20 January 2016 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 14 October 2015 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 8 July 2015 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 15 April 2015 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 21 January 2015 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 15 October 2014 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 9 July 2014 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 16 April 2014 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 22 January 2014 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 16 October 2013 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 10 July 2013 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 17 April 2013 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 23 January 2013 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 17 October 2012 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 4 July 2012 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 18 April 2012 (only available in Portuguese)

Published on 25 January 2012 (only available in Portuguese)

Research Papers and Thematic Reports

Thematic Reports
keyboard_arrow_down

Aside from its usual Quarterly Newsletter on the short-term behavior of the Portuguese economy, Católica Lisbon Forecasting Lab | NECEP also produces Thematic Reports. Each year, NECEP intends to put together a Thematic Report on the Government Budget for the following year. 

Thematic Report number 29
"Analysis of the Government Budget for 2021"

View the summary here as a PDF (in Portuguese only). 

NECEP Research Papers
keyboard_arrow_down

Research Paper 1/2017

"Robust Estimation of the Portuguese Real Business Cycles"

Research Paper 2/2022

"Robust Filtering with Quantile Regression"

João Borges de Assunção and Pedro Afonso Fernandes

Our Team

The work of NECEP is carried out by a technical team coordinated by Professor João Borges de Assunção. The researchers of this team are: Pedro Afonso Fernandes (Senior Economist), Inês Domingos and Carlos Rondão.

The Quarterly Newsletter and the Thematic Reports are submitted prior to publication to a Scientific Committee comprising the following professors: João César das Neves, Miguel Gouveia, Luis Guilherme Bernardes, Fátima Barros, Fernando Machado, Francisco Veloso, João Confraria, Leonor Modesto, Ricardo Reis, Teresa Lloyd Braga and Pedro Raposo.

NECEP Contacts

E-mail: necep@clsbe.lisboa.ucp.pt

Phone: (+351) 217 206 241